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The British Retail Consortium (BRC) has strongly warned against any more tax hikes in the Autumn Budget, saying that they could make prices in stores go up even more. The UK economy is still dealing with rising prices and making important choices about taxes and spending. Food prices stayed the same at 4.2% in September 2025. This was the highest level since the oil crisis in 2022. This happened because the expenses of energy and labour were increasing. Prices for products other than food, on the other hand, went up from -0.6% in August to -0.1%. Things are more streamlined for payment these days in various sectors, including a collection of PayPal casinos in Ireland, so it’s easier than ever for people to access and transfer funds, but of course, rising prices are affecting retail across the board.
At the same time, there are other worries about the economy, such the fact that food prices are expected to go up by 5.5% by the end of the year. Part of the reason for this is that the government raised employers’ National Insurance payments by £25 billion. Access Bank’s CEO, Roosevelt Ogbonna, bought a £15 million mansion on ‘Billionaires’ Row’ in Hampstead. This illustrates that those with a lot of money are still strong, even though the London housing market for ultra-luxury homes is starting to slow down.
This essay talks a lot about these changes, focusing on how they affect the economy and how the problems that ordinary people face are different from the ones that high-end real estate faces as of September 30, 2025.
BRC’s September Monitor on Food Inflation’s Stubborn Hold
The BRC-NielsenIQ Shop Price Monitor for September 2025 showed that food prices were still rising by 4.2% a year, just like they had been in August. This was the quickest rate since the 3.2% rise in May 2024, when the globe was in an oil crisis. The average for the last three months was 4.1%, therefore, this number is higher than that. This means that supermarket prices will keep going higher.
The price of fresh food stayed the same at 4.1%, which is higher than the average price over the prior three months, which was 3.8%. Farmers are still having trouble employing workers and paying for energy, and the prices of meat and dairy are high. The cost of products other than food rose up a little bit, from -0.6% in August to -0.1% in September. This caused the overall rise in retail prices to reach 1.4% year-on-year, the highest level since June 2025’s 1.2%.
Prices have climbed a lot in areas like DIY and gardening because of seasonal demand and problems in the supply chain. Prices on clothes and school supplies didn’t go up too much, either, thanks to back-to-school sales. The Bank of England forecasts that by December 2025, the price of food might go up by as much as 5.5%. This is because the £25 billion increase in National Insurance for employers that started in April 2025 has affected wages and the cost of conducting business.
Retailers’ stress and strain on consumers
Helen Dickinson, the head of the BRC, talked about how stores are trying to save costs. She said, “As long as stores can keep costs low and give customers good value, any tax hikes in the next Budget would keep prices high for a longer time.”
People haven’t fully felt the effects of a 15% rise in grocery prices in 2022 because of this absorption, but ongoing pressures are cutting into earnings. Mike Watkins of NielsenIQ stated, “As inflation keeps going up, a lot of shoppers are still worried about their own money and are becoming more price-sensitive.” Because of this, stores will definitely keep having sales and bargains for the next few weeks to keep customers coming in.
Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at AJ Bell, said the prognosis was “the worst nightmare for a retailer.” He also said, “Things could fall apart if taxes go up in the November Budget.” Some folks could be rushing to finish their Christmas shopping early because they think costs will go up and they won’t have enough money.
Shevaun Haviland from the British Chambers of Commerce said the same thing at their yearly meeting. She said, “The one thing I want the government to remember is that there shouldn’t be any more tax hikes at the Autumn Budget.” This is because firms are already under a lot of “huge cost pressures.”
The Autumn Budget 2025 will raise taxes, so stores should be careful.
The Autumn Budget, which will take place on November 26, 2025, will probably address a budget gap of £40 to £50 billion. People think that the government will raise business taxes, even though Labour promised in its platform not to raise income tax, VAT, or employee National Insurance.
Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, is under a lot of pressure to achieve a balance between her goals of growth and paying down debt. The 2024 Budget brought in £40 billion through employer National Insurance (which went up 1.2% to 15% in April 2025) and other taxes. Here are some things you could do:
Changes to the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) to bring it more in line with income tax rates (from 10%–20% to 18%–24%) or changes to the Business Asset Disposal Relief (14% from April 2025, rising to 18% in 2026).
Changes to the Inheritance Tax (IHT) make it difficult to receive help with agricultural and business property. Values over £1 million will get a 50% discount starting in April 2026.
Threshold freezes and hidden levies, such as extending income tax threshold freezes until 2028, might bring in £20 billion. There may be changes to taxes on pensions or dividends.
Business rates relief, including a 40% fall for the retail, hotel, and leisure industries from 2025 to 2026, limited at £110,000 per business, and rates that stay low indefinitely.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Treasury say that prices will keep going higher until growth picks up speed. A survey from Grant Thornton in June 2025 says that 75% of businesses believe prices will rise again. Prime Minister Keir Starmer set up the Budget Board in early September to help people talk about things that are good for business. There is still doubt, though, because there is a £51 billion gap in budgetary headroom.
What does it imply for the economy and business
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) says that rules that cost firms £5 billion a year to follow will have a “net negative effect” on jobs and the economy. These expenditures will hit small and medium-sized businesses the hardest. Andrew Griffith, the Shadow Business Secretary, said that the law should be put on hold to encourage competition and asked for a “reset.”
Dickinson said that families would have to pay more for goods and services, which would keep inflation at 1.4%, up from 0.9% in August.
Ogbonna bought a mansion in Hampstead for £15 million in the high-end real estate market.
The ultra-luxury market in London is still doing well, even though the retail sector is having problems. Roosevelt Ogbonna acquired a £15 million mansion on The Bishops Avenue in Hampstead in August 2025.
The CEO of Access Bank, who took over in May 2022, bought the eight-bedroom estate for £2 million less than the £17 million asking price in 2022. There is a pool, a jacuzzi, a theatre and nine bathrooms in the mansion. The yard has been landscaped.
Ogbonna, who is known as a “thoroughbred and consummate professional” and has a strong academic background, joins famous people like Justin Bieber, Ariana Grande, Lakshmi Mittal, and the Sultan of Brunei on the street, which is nicknamed “Billionaires’ Row” because it has 66 homes worth £620 million.
This is the second sale on the avenue this year, which shows that the high-end market is slowing down. Another residence sold for £8.8 million in June 2025. Hampstead is still quite popular because it is close to Hampstead Heath, has a historic charm, and has planning restrictions that protect its uniqueness. But because the economy is shaky, sales of mega-mansions have slowed down.
Because of recent events, including the public attention on Huxley House, people are moving into homes with more than one person. This has led to fewer mega-mansions being empty.
Ogbonna’s Profile and Access Bank’s Growth in the UK
Ogbonna received a loan from Access Bank’s UK branch to help him buy the business. Access Bank is Nigeria’s biggest bank by assets and has more than 50 million customers. This shows that Ogbonna is now one of the best financiers in London.
Ogbonna started working for the organisation as Executive Director of Commercial Banking in 2013. He was made Group Deputy Managing Director in 2017. He stepped down as a non-executive director of Access Holdings, the parent company, in August 2025, but he is still the CEO.
His relocation fits with Access Bank’s growth in the UK, where a house with 50,000 square feet sold for £200 million earlier this year.
Different Forces: Retail Stress vs. Luxury Strength
expenditures for food have gone up by 4.2%, whereas expenditures for things that aren’t food have gone down by 0.1%. This shows that people are divided: they need goods, thus their money is tight, but they aren’t spending as much on things they don’t need. Dickinson believes that more taxes would make this last longer, costing homes £5 billion and putting small businesses in danger.
The market in Hampstead, on the other hand, is still doing well. Ogbonna’s acquisition during a downturn (just two sales in 2025) shows that wealthy people are stable.
There is inequality because shops pay for things and wealthy investors do not. The choices made in the Autumn Budget might make the gap even bigger.
The End
The 4.2% rise in food prices in September 2025, the most since 2022, shows that prices are still rising higher. The BRC doesn’t want the Autumn Budget to hike taxes, which could cost an extra £5 billion and keep prices going up.
Merchants are having a “nightmare” because wages and energy prices are rising up while inflation in goods other than food moves closer to being positive.
Roosevelt Ogbonna’s £15 million purchase on Billionaires’ Row in Hampstead shows that the luxury market is still strong, even though sales are slowing down. This property is on a street with properties valued £620 million.
The November 26 Budget will be a test for Chancellor Reeves to see if he can maintain things in balance. Freezing CGT, IHT, and thresholds could make it harder for the economy to grow while also paying for public services. How these things are handled will decide if they help or hurt the economy.
